May 6, 2016 The San Francisco Luxury Home Market | Homes of $2 Million & Above The bar charts compare year-over-year data, going back 2 years, for the latest month. The line charts track monthly data over a period of 3 to 5 years. Note that it can take 7 to 15 days after a month’s end for agents to enter in transaction data pertinent to the month in question, so statistics for the latest month can sometimes change significantly as this data is added to calculations. Seasonality can play a significant role in many real estate statistics as the market ebbs and flows during active and less active sales seasons. Typically, the market is most active in the spring and fall, and slower in the summer and, especially, the mid-winter holidays. The luxury home market is even more deeply affected by seasonality than the general market. To keep things simple, we have, rather arbitrarily, designated homes of $2 million and above as luxury homes. The threshold should be higher for houses (probably in the $2.5m to $3m range), and somewhat lower than $2m for condos, but then we couldn’t get both property types on the same charts. Needless to say, what one gets for one’s money in different neighborhoods varies enormously. Statistics are generalities, most useful for illustrating general market trends. Moving your cursor across any line chart will pull up month by month data. It may take these auto-updating charts a few moments to load onto the webpage. New Listings Coming on Market, by Month September is usually the single biggest month for new high-end home listings. Spring is typically the most active season for new listings. New listing activity plunges during the mid-summer and mid-winter holidays. Total Number of Active Listings for Sale during Month Number of Listings Accepting Offers, by Month Number of Sales, by Month Percentage of Listings Selling for over Asking Price, by Month Median Percentage of List Price Achieved on Sale Over 100% usually signifies competitive overbidding; under 100% signifies more aggressive buyer negotiation. Median Dollar per Square Foot (upon Sale) 3-Month Rolling Average Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), by Month The lower the MSI, the greater the buyer demand as compared to the inventory of listings available to buy. Median Days on Market before Acceptance of Offer 3-Month Rolling Average Expensive Home Sales by San Francisco District & Neighborhood Note that these charts using differing price points for the “luxury home” designation. Other reports you might find interesting: Market Analytics for General SF Market 30+ Years of San Francisco Real Estate Cycles San Francisco Neighborhood Affordability 10 Big Factors behind the San Francisco Real Estate Market Bay Area Apartment Building Market Link to San Francisco Neighborhood Map It is the relationship between supply and demand that defines the state of the market. Looking at one statistic such as the number of sales, without comparing it to how many listings were available to purchase, may give a distorted view of market conditions. Some statistics, such as months supply of inventory take both supply and demand into account. Last but not least, short-term statistics sometimes fluctuate without great meaningfulness – longer-term trends are always most meaningful. Sales data usually reflects market activity, i.e. when a new listing comes on market and offers are negotiated, occurring 4 to 8 weeks before the sale date. Thus, for example, sales in June mostly reflect new listings and offers negotiated in late April and May.